There is good news on the theatrical release front. And, some not so good news.
* projected based on 2015-2019 averages for the same period
The good news first. Generally speaking, 12.5 percent of all new theatrical releases take place during the first two months of each year. While the number is still small, it does set the tone for how the year is likely to play out.
So far, 2023 is trending well above the pandemic years, with 64 films looking to reach the top two boxes in terms of domestic box office receipts ($25 million to $100 million; $100 million or greater).
Why those thresholds? It takes a combination of theatres, weeks at play, P&A and continued audience interest to get to the minimum of $25 million at the box office … most films fall well short of that mark.
The 64-film projection is up from the final counts of 46 in 2022; 44 is 2021 and a measly 12 in all of 2020. Positive to be sure.
The bad news, 64 is still well short of the 89 to 98 range of the five most recent pre-pandemic years. But the trend is at least headed in the right direction.
The really bad news remains unchecked piracy driven by the lust of the various streaming platforms to make that failing business model their number one priority.
In 2022, just four “Hollywood” studios — Paramount, Universal, Warner Bros. and Disney — lost roughly $800 million per month (by their own financial reporting). And as they, in these same year-end announcements, see more red ink in 2023, they collectively “hope” that it won’t be as bad.
Sorry, but $800 million in loses each month is both insane and not sustainable.
Of the five films with confirmed home entertainment packaged media street dates, only the directing team of Nicholas D. Johnson and Will Merrick’s Missing has yet to be pirated (its first streaming date is Mar. 7 … so expect multiple sources to have Blu-ray and/or DVD editions available within days after that). A Man Called Otto, M3GAN, Plane and Magic Mike’s Last Dance have all been attacked by multiple sources (M3GAN is so popular it even got a 4K Ultra HD knockoff).
Disney Media and Entertainment has done an excellent
job of letting director James Cameron’s Avatar:
The Way of Water play out in theatres, but with
the announcement that Mar. 28 will be the multi-platform streaming date (without
Blu-ray, DVD or 4K Ultra HD product offerings), expect a piracy bonanza to follow
within hours of the first complete showing.
As streaming is being fed by a lethal combination of stupidity, greed and fear, the “Hollywood” studios, seem hellbent on destroying the theatrical distribution model that they spent 100 years building. Perhaps, just perhaps (hopefully), at some point in 2023 it will become obvious that the emperor has no clothes and the insanity stops; order is restored. Profits follow.
To compound the self-destructive impulse that dominates the entertainment business even further, the vast film libraries produced during the sound era (1930 to 1996, the launch year of DVD) are now being pirated at numbers so massive that even the Caribbean buccaneers of lore would blush. The “Hollywood” studios have neither the resources or the focus to deal with the onslaught.
Although the focus here is on New Theatrical piracy, the “Hollywood” studios are not the only players who seem blissfully unaware of what is taking place with their productions. Amazon Prime, Netflix … and on and on, also are being picked clean. Amazon Studios, as just one example, by their own numbers has something on the order of 2,700 people working at the Culver City headquarters and there seems to be no one in that group that checks on their programs being pirated.
Maybe piracy is just a baked-in cost of doing business these days. Perhaps staffing is composed Alfred E. “What, Me Worry?” Neuman clones … could be!
Check back at the end of March for the next update. Until then.
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