Four weeks into 2023 is still a little early to project how the entire year theatrically-speaking will play out. With that said, here’s where we are at the end of January (inventory-wise).
On average, 5.9 percent of all films destined to be released during the year arrive during the first four weeks. It’s a mixed bag at this point, with 2023 projected to finish ahead of a disappointing 2022 with an estimated 441 new theatrical releases for 2023 versus a count of 422 in 2022.
Again, it’s early, but 18 blockbusters (films grossing in excess of $100 million) and 37 second-tier theatrical hits (films grossing between $25 million and $100 million) are projected for 2023 based on results through the first four weeks of the year. 2022 finished with 18 blockbusters and 28 second-tier theatrical hits, so the early projections are showing signs of potential improvement (modest improvement).
However, going back to pre-pandemic baselines and you would expect on average 31 blockbusters during the course of the year and 63 second-tier theatrical hits … we are still nowhere returning to those levels.
The first four weeks of the year normally produce five or six films in the top two boxes … so far in 2023 we have two, which (good news) is twice as many as the same period last year.
See below for a complete recap of new theatrical release results (to date) and the current 2023 projections based on results to date by box office category.
In inventory, there are two top-box films, Avatar: The Way of Water and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, which should arrive in the home entertainment packaged media marketplace in early March. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish has already reached the Blu-ray marketplace via “extra-legal” sources in January.
Director Gerard Johnstone’s M3GAN is showing the legs to move into top-box status, currently grossing $82.2 million, but it may run up against streaming and VOD windows that could cut it short.
Multiple sources have already tapped into the success of Johnstone’s film with pirated Blu-ray product offerings.
The balance of theatrical releases yet to make the transition to the home entertainment packaged media arena remains thin, with just A Man Called Otto (Sony Pictures), Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero (Cruncyroll/FUNimation) and Plane (Lionsgate) all looking to make the move sometime during March.
For reasons that are unclear, writer/director Zach Cregger’s Barbarian was skipped-over by Disney Media and Entertainment. It’s odd, very odd, that a $40.8 million grossing film doesn’t make a swift transition from theatres to retail supported by DVD, Blu-ray or 4K Ultra HD buying options.
Since nature abhors a vacuum, both DVD and Blu-rays editions of Barbarian have already been released by “alternate” sources.
