You turn on the news and the local weather report comes on … the time the sun rises and sets, the tides, the wind direction, the temperature range are all predicted. Oh sure, a degree off here or there, a little more or less rain than expected, but it’s pretty-much ball park, day in and day out.
The same, believe it or not, holds true for the home entertainment packaged media marketplace. For example, from 2006 thought 2021 — a period of 16 years — the average number of DVDs released at the 35-week mark (end of August … 8 months of 12 months) as a percentage of the entire year total has averaged out to 65.84 percent. Eight of Twelve comes out to 66.7 percent … maybe a few more titles at Christmas and a few less during summer, but that’s damn close and pretty consistent. Year-in and year-out.
Sure, it bounces around from a low side of 61.26 percent to a high side of 69.97 percent, but when you average out the past 16 years you get 65.84 percent.
This year — 2022 — if that percentage holds, we will see a mind-blowing count of 19,545 new DVD releases. Last year was a new record of 16,090, eclipsing the 2006 mark of 15,234.
2006 was the high-water mark as the Blu-ray format was launched and the DVD counts began drifting lower as the Blu-ray format expanded its consumer reach.
By 2016, there were just 10,888 new DVD releases recorded. So how on earth did we get to a new forecast record of 19,545 for this year?
It is a combination of events. The rise of DVD on demand (MOD) has been the driving force in terms of SKU counts. The “flip” took place in 2017, when, for the first time MOD DVD releases surpassed replicated DVD manufactured releases. That trend is not slowing down.
That accounts for the “software” that is driving the SKU-counts, but it goes deeper than just the ease of manufacturing the product. The studios, which own the vast film libraries from the beginning of the sound era to the present day, have lost their focus on this very valuable asset. Numerous online entrepreneurs have essentially declared all theatrical releases from the 1930s, 40s, 50s and 60s as now being in the public domain … and no one is challenging that.
Another major driver is sports. Virtually every high school sporting event is videotaped now. Baseball, football, soccer, volleyball … you name it, and it is likely that there is tape of the game. With the rise of DVD MOD, it was only a matter of time before these events would become an organized money-maker. The numbers for each event are certainly small, but there are so many of them … it adds up.
There are major distributors in this area, which drive seasonal SKU-counts, but there are also local broadband networks that have discovered a market for what they have produced/telecast on their local access channels. They take DVD MOD orders for the games (sure, you can watch it on YouTube or Vimeo, but if you want a hard copy, just hit the local website’s online store). Think about it, there are no production costs … kids take the field (the court, the rink, etc.) and play out a random event where no two games will be the same. Parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles, cousins … there’s your market.
Once these “micro” broadcasters discovered that money could be made from local sports, why not local concerts, the Fourth of July parade, local high school graduations … hey, what about selling copies (DVD on-demand) of last night’s city council meeting? Again, no production costs … it’s just there on video.
While the “Hollywood” studios have all but given up on the DVD format (just 268 DVD product offerings for the first eight months of 2022 … that’s a 2.08 percent market share; a blip), those that have found money-making uses for the format have expanded exponentially to fill that void.
Add in your old standbys of Religion and Special Interest and you can certainly see how the SKU-counts have taken off since the bottom was reached in 2016.
And what of Blu-ray? Once established, the predictive nature of full year versus eight-months followed the same pattern as DVD, with a little more tilt towards the last four months of the year. Instead of a “normal” distribution of 66.7 percent (eight months of twelve), Blu-ray runs a little cold at 63.31 percent.
Based on the first eight months of release activity, the Blu-ray format will also have a mind-blowing banner release year. At the eight-month mark there have been 3,556 new releases, which equates-out to a projected year-end total of 5,617.
That’s a 20.32 percent jump over last year’s record of 4,668, which in turn was a whopping 43.90 percent rise over the 2020 final count of 3,244 new Blu-ray SKUs.
What is driving this explosive growth? In a word, streaming (and not in a good way).
Multiple online entrepreneurs are being served-up pristine hi-def masters of both series and feature film programming from such platforms as Netflix, Amazon Prime, The Peacock, Disney +, Paramount +, HBO Max and others … and then they are grinding them out on Blu-ray in record numbers.
It has become clear that studio staffing is simply not geared to handle the volume of new Blu-ray releases being pilfered from their various streaming services. You reach out to them and alert them, but all you get are crickets. The entire new-to-Blu-ray release list for each week is published in this report (and online as well) … it is public, for all to see, again crickets.
Piracy is a huge source of the sharp rise in Blu-ray product offerings, but it is not the only source. The same sports and community-based entities that have driven SKU counts for the DVD format have tumbled to the fact that Blu-ray MOD is just as easy to replicate on demand, and it gives them greater bandwidth.
Some of these sources are charging a premium for a Blu-ray versus a DVD item (we will sell you whatever you wish), some not, some have switched completely to Blu-ray (again, greater bandwidth). The rapid increase in SKU counts reflects this ... and certainly more will join the party.
Last year, 2021, Blu-ray MOD releases finally overtook replicated Blu-ray for the first time … so far this year Blu-ray MOD releases are outpacing traditional replicated Blu-ray SKUs by nearly two-to-one.
The studios, for the first time, have seen their share count for new Blu-ray product offerings drop below ten percent (8.13 percent through for the first eight months of 2022). It has fallen to independents like Arrow Video, Synapse Films, Severin Films, MVD Entertainment Group, Mill Creek Entertainment, The Film Detective, Kino Lorber, Shout! Factory and, of course, The Criterion Collection (among others) to pick up the slack for Blu-ray film library product offerings, which use to be a mainstay for the studios. Streaming is their focus now.
In summary, 2022 is on pace to smash all previous new title release records. And, there is nothing to indicate that this rapid rise in home entertainment package media releases will be slowing down anytime soon. 20,000 new DVD releases for 2022 is not out of reach … to put that into some context, it took from 1997 to late 2002 (five-and-a-half years) to generate a matching total of 20,000 DVD titles in release (we are going to see that in just 12 months this year)!
On the Blu-ray side of the ledger, 5,617 are projected based on trends through the first eight months. It also took five-and-a-half years to get to the same total for the Blu-ray format … whew, what a ride.
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