Good news on two fronts.
First, the New Theatrical “hit” inventory — those films grossing in excess of $25 million in theatres nationwide — is the healthiest it has been since 2019 (pre-pandemic).
There are 16 films that meet that standard currently in inventory and that should get a boost this next week when the first weekend results of both writer/director Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and auteur filmmaker Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer are posted — both opened very strong.
Secondly, the other piece of good news, is that the projected number of new theatrical release hitting your local multiplex before year-end is also at a three year “recovery” high of 549, up from last week’s 541. We appear to have broken out of the doldrums about three weeks ago when trend lines marched out of the March through June holding pattern.
The number of “top box” hits, films grossing in excess of $25 million and $100 million, is now also projected to be at three-year “recovery” high when all is said and done — 69 hits!
However, just to take it down a notch, 549, while still at a three-year high point, is still well-below the pre-pandemic average of 753 new theatrical releases (2015-2019). And the pre-pandemic average for the two top boxes ($25 million plus; $100 million plus) was 94 (still aways to go).
Before we get into what the “helpers” (pirates, bootleggers, etc.) have been up to this past week — all at the hands of the misguided assistance of the actual copyright owners through their streaming and VOD windows — there is another trend the we think is emerging. This would be a positive change in the ARR averages.
OK, what the hell are “ARR averages” you are asking yourself.
Back when DVD was first launched (1997), we needed to describe the window between when a film opened theatrically and when it subsequently arrived in the home entertainment packaged media marketplace.
Calling it window-this or window-that was boring … window, window, window, so no window, instead we came up with Asset Rollover Rate (hence: ARR).
Films grossing in excess of $25 million in the domestic marketplace are assets that should be managed with care. That didn’t necessarily happen during the pandemic as the studios went all-in on streaming and moved films faster and faster from theatrical venues to the packaged media marketplace with a streaming launch in between the theatrical rollout and the DVD, Blu-ray and/or 4K Ultra HD release (which is ass-backwards).
On March 17, 2020 the annual pace was 91.3 days as the average for films grossing $25 million or more to make the cycle. On March 14, 2023, three years later, the average had been pounded down to 71.4 days … and on April 18 it hit rock bottom with an ARR of 69.8 days (an all-time low).
Since that April low the ARR has turned around and now stands at 89.8 days. The reason we are hesitant to say that things are returning to normal is that a big, big factor in this sudden recovery was Disney sitting on Avatar: The Way of Water for 186 days, which tends to distort things.
But it is worth keeping an eye on … there is a sense that things are slowing down a tad as the studios might be seeing the destructive ways of streaming at last (perhaps wishful thinking). The “awakening” could be amplified during the first week of August when the quarterly financials are posted — expect them to be very, very ugly.
As for our “helper” friends this past week, they loved documentary filmmaker Henry Roosevelt’s Take Care of Maya, which opened at Tribeca on June 10 and then went straight to streaming on Netflix on June 19 … the “helpers” tapped it twice on Blu-ray in one week. It will likely never see the light of day from Netflix as either DVD or Blu-ray product offerings, so the “helpers” (knowing this) jumped in and immediately filled the void.
Next to get clipped was writer/director William Kaufman’s superb action flick, The Channel, which Brainstorm Media released theatrically in selected markets on July 14 (no box office reported). VOD followed and a Blu-ray popped up in just a matter of hours.
Here’s an odd one. Way, way back in May of 2022, writer/director Russell Owen’s Shepherd, starring Tom Hughes, was released theatrically by Saban Films. No box office was reported (typical) and VOD immediately followed … and then nothing, nada. Until this past when the physical media void was filled with a “helper” Blu-ray release.
And then to cap it off, Blu-ray pre-orders were set in motion for No Hard Feelings, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Sound of Freedom. The “helpers” track the VOD and streaming windows and then spring into action by taking pre-orders knowing full-well that little, if anything will be done.
Next week it will be a different story, hummed to the same tune.
