Preliminary format release results for 2019 show
increases in SKU counts for both DVD and Blu-ray, while the 4K Ultra HD number
remained as nothing more than a studio high-profile theatrical release blip.
It should be noted that the DVD count will rise slightly
in the weeks ahead as stranglers are tracked down and posted. The Blu-ray number is pretty close to the
market and the 4K Ultra HD count is firm.
The DVD SKU count for 2019 currently stands at
10,866 new releases, that is a 2.47 percent increase over the 2018 posting of
10,604 new DVD titles. This rise in
output is generated by the ever-increasing use of on-demand publishing (MOD),
which now outpaces traditionally replicated discs by a factor of 64.5 percent
MOD to 35.5 percent replicated (7,006 titles versus 3,860).
The MOD/replicated ratio flipped in 2018 for the
first time when MOD releases outpaced traditionally replicated DVD product
offerings by 51.8 percent to 48.2 percent (5,491 versus 5,112).
We fully expect this trend to continue as MOD
publishing for DVD products will continue to mirror the book publishing
business for soft-cover books (especially from Amazon.com). 48-hour turn-around will become the norm for
the majority of titles released on DVD in the coming years … cheap, simple and
effective.
It is also a pirate’s paradise as the studios seem
content to let “deep catalog” offenses slide.
The big growth area for the DVD format is Sports
on-demand, with the CBS Sports Digital Network leading the way in publishing
high school sporting events nationwide on an on-demand basis. We expect this trend to include increases in
both college-level and professional sporting events in the near future.
Of note, Coplay, Pennsylvania’s Smart Mark Video
delivers a weekly slate of new DVD and Blu-ray on-demand releases to fans of
the professional wrestling market (non-WWE).
It would not come as a surprise if other niche sporting events were to
develop similar publishing venues … again, cheap, simple and effective.
Other on-demand categories that fuel the annual
count of DVD new product choices are Religion, Foreign Language movies and
Special Interest, plus recycled Theatrical library titles by “non-traditional”
sources, many of which are currently owned by the “Hollywood” studios (no one
seems to be monitoring this any longer).
It would not come as a surprise if the current
streaming wars ultimately became a rich source of programming for the on-demand
packaged media marketplace. Bloomberg reported this past week that a
whopping 535 new television programs were released in 2019 … that’s ten new
shows per week. Some on network, some
on cable and the bulk as streaming choices.
Just ball-parking the numbers, ten episodes per show, one hour per
episode … that’s something on the order of 5,000 hours annually of episodic
programming from just new productions alone.
Hello!!
Slow to pick up on the trend in on-demand publishing
is the music industry, which could be churning out “keep sake” editions of
concerts — both current and vintage — on an on-demand basis (someone will pick
up on this … of this we are sure). Fathom Events, with their rich selection of
operas and other musical events, while popular with theatre-goers, seem to have
missed this “keep sake” market as well (at least for the moment).
On the Blu-ray front, SKU count exceeded 3,000 new
releases for the first time in the history of the format this past year. The preliminary number stands at 3,027, an
increase of 7.53 percent over the 2018 Blu-ray release total of 2,815 new
titles.
The ratio between traditional replication and MOD
for the Blu-ray format remains remarkably stable — 71.5/28.5 percent in 2018
versus 71.1/28.9 percent in 2019 (Blu-ray is the workhorse for the studios at
this point, so that ratio should remain about same for 2020).
As for the 4K Ultra HD format, there were 170 new
product offerings in 2019 versus 179 in 2018 … that’s a decline of five
percent. Hardly worth noting!
Overall, combined new SKU counts for the three
formats currently stands at 14,063 for 2019 (that will continue to move upward
in the next few weeks as revisions are made).
Last year the number came home at 13,598, which marks an overall
increase of 3.4 percent in home entertainment packaged media output on a
year-over-year basis.
The overall ratio of traditional replication versus
MOD publishing — for the combined three formats — is now flipped in favor of
on-demand publishing for the first time.
56 percent of all new releases were on-demand (7,882), while 44 percent
were from traditional manufacturing (6,181) … the previous year (2018), the
on-demand percent was 46.3 percent (6,293), while traditional sources
contributed 53.7 percent (7,305).
The trend is unmistakable … it would not come as a
surprise if the overall record of 15,227 new releases achieved in 2006 is soon
eclipsed … on-demand publishing, coupled with new product sources will make
this so.
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